The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
Alas, the entire english.chinamil.com.cn site is rejecting my web queries today, but in such a way that it appears the server is alive but rejecting my connection requests. However, this is OK to reach: http://chinamil.cn/ On the other hand, that now is the home page of a web hosting firm. My conclusion: somebody in China's military decided that they shouldn't be putting out all those press releases. Hmmm....
This could have been reached back then by going to the main Chinese military website as noted above and drilling down.
I hardly use web searches anymore to find data. Twitter is amazing if you know how to follow through one follower to another and so on and develop a community who eagerly post news from obscure sources. The newsletters of Foreignpolicy.com and http://www.forecastinternational.com/ also do a great job of aggregating otherwise obscure news.
I don't have the link used to resolve the question - didn't save everything from last year, sorry! And so, also do not have my forecasts which had the links to various articles I used. But in working on that question, based my forecast on past actions & what China seemed likely to do. Also on reports of subs in various straits (IIRC), & stories/news on http://english.chinamil.com.cn/ and http://eng.mod.gov.cn/
Regarding @000's discussion of a Civil Air Patrol equivalent to forecast using classified information: the logistics would be intimidating. Nobody is allowed to have classified information at home for multiple reasons. Volunteers, after getting cleared (expensive and time consuming) would need a facility to hold their clearances and would have to travel to that facility to access data. This would require building or renting office space.
Mikhail Lesin, 57, also had blunt force injuries to the neck, torso, arms and legs, Washington DC's chief medical examiner said, without concluding how the injuries had been sustained....
He worked as an aide to the presidency between 2004 and 2009 and was instrumental in the creation of Russia's state-funded international broadcaster RT (formerly known as Russia Today)
@cmeinel, since there are apparently 80,000 spooks looking for part-time hourly work, there will be some subset of those willing to commute to a SCIF and do their thing. They won't be as good as the 0.25% of this site, however, but what can you do.
@GL2814, what are you implying? Lesin obviously beat himself to death. Putin is no Tony Soprano, casually whacking everyone who crosses him.
So I assume everyone's seen this today - off of AEI CTP: Russian news outlets reported that Russia will ship the first delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Iran in August or September.
Since I am coming late to this current discussion. Forgive me if it is old news. I just got the email though a few moments ago.
Reaffirming my forecast.
The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
@000 I saved the link for the source on the Chinese fleet blue water maneuvers: http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/
Alas, the entire english.chinamil.com.cn site is rejecting my web queries today, but in such a way that it appears the server is alive but rejecting my connection requests. However, this is OK to reach: http://chinamil.cn/ On the other hand, that now is the home page of a web hosting firm. My conclusion: somebody in China's military decided that they shouldn't be putting out all those press releases. Hmmm....
This could have been reached back then by going to the main Chinese military website as noted above and drilling down.
I hardly use web searches anymore to find data. Twitter is amazing if you know how to follow through one follower to another and so on and develop a community who eagerly post news from obscure sources. The newsletters of Foreignpolicy.com and http://www.forecastinternational.com/ also do a great job of aggregating otherwise obscure news.
I don't have the link used to resolve the question - didn't save everything from last year, sorry! And so, also do not have my forecasts which had the links to various articles I used. But in working on that question, based my forecast on past actions & what China seemed likely to do. Also on reports of subs in various straits (IIRC), & stories/news on http://english.chinamil.com.cn/ and http://eng.mod.gov.cn/
Regarding @000's discussion of a Civil Air Patrol equivalent to forecast using classified information: the logistics would be intimidating. Nobody is allowed to have classified information at home for multiple reasons. Volunteers, after getting cleared (expensive and time consuming) would need a facility to hold their clearances and would have to travel to that facility to access data. This would require building or renting office space.
Lol, that's too much. Besides, can do a lot with public data. Might be worth figuring out how to use GDELT, for instance.
Speaking of Russia Today: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35781333
Mikhail Lesin, 57, also had blunt force injuries to the neck, torso, arms and legs, Washington DC's chief medical examiner said, without concluding how the injuries had been sustained....
He worked as an aide to the presidency between 2004 and 2009 and was instrumental in the creation of Russia's state-funded international broadcaster RT (formerly known as Russia Today)
@cmeinel, since there are apparently 80,000 spooks looking for part-time hourly work, there will be some subset of those willing to commute to a SCIF and do their thing. They won't be as good as the 0.25% of this site, however, but what can you do.
@GL2814, what are you implying? Lesin obviously beat himself to death. Putin is no Tony Soprano, casually whacking everyone who crosses him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Anna_Politkovskaya
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3409405/Inquiry-says-Litvinenko-killed-Putin-s-spies.html
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3427198/banking-and-capital-markets-emerging-markets/bill-browder-puts-putin-on-notice-with-expos-of-corruption.html
@000 he probably just slipped in the shower http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25425859/falcons-player-slips-in-shower-hits-head-now-in-concussion-protocol
@GL2184, @CEMEINEL...
So I assume everyone's seen this today - off of AEI CTP: Russian news outlets reported that Russia will ship the first delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Iran in August or September.
Since I am coming late to this current discussion. Forgive me if it is old news. I just got the email though a few moments ago.
@GL2184 I think you mean he slipped in the "душ".
In Russia, душ slips it to you.