The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
@redacted, wasn't it stated early on that Iranians were in Russia training on the upgraded command units and software? In contradiction to the statement that all of this series were obsolete and scrapped? In contradiction to trade show mixed messages saying Iranians were in process of picking makes and models? In contradiction of May 2015 orders from Putin to fill the order (do countries with dictators ignore supreme leader mandates?). Also with a multitude of positions regarding the lawsuit, factory orders and other paperwork. Meanwhile, Egypt, India and others were "placing orders" and various stock units were deployed to Syria, Russian Eastern Territory and Arctic during this question period. I believe, like the naval missiles to Syria, the downed missiles in Iran, the onboard S-400 batteries on ships in the Mediterranean and the submarine missile firings, these were primarily for Western consumption. All the talk of a bankrupt Russia cannot diminish the perceive panoply in multiple theaters, that if Western aggression begins anywhere, there are multiple responses in place to respond east coast, west coast, Alaska, Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Turkey, Caucuses, Levant that any reasonable military strategist would start running out of battle pieces to cover the map with adequate response. Borrowing an old American slogan/flag motto, Russia hung a huge "Don't Tread On Me!" banner for all the world to see. It hasn't hurt their arms sales business.
@ravel: Yes, you're right. Perhaps I was too myopic in selecting my discrepancy exemplar. We should have more questions focused on Russia. Does Janes track transaction volumes? I'm kind of counting on some big Russian arms sales to deliver the 4th quarter GDP surprise for the BRIC question. Maybe we could work backward from the financial transaction to the S-300 delivery date, eh?
@einsteinjs Thank you, I got your participant feedback report and converted it into pdf and odt formats and returned it to you along with my feedback and final leaderboard. It certainly is fascinating getting a look at season 4's many experimental groups. Anyone else want to trade?
@000, Lars, Moon Maid died in the explosion so I am too sad to continue that discussion. However before we discuss alt-news, perhaps we can entertain ideas as why or what agreements between Old Families, Bloodline and Magicians, White Hats, Dragons and P2 that allow P2 to fall, Iran a pass, and the re-emergence of Assyria. Ah, those are great themes for future incarnations of prediction games and markets, no?
If only we had invested in rocket engines: "The debate over the Russian engines has become entangled in an emerging rivalry among the companies vying for the lucrative business of space launches, amounting to $70 billion in contracts for military and intelligence missions alone between now and 2030, according to an estimate cited by the Government Accountability Office." as per your source, says that yes, that is a lot of money, and if the McCain party position wins, great news for Elon Musk and Robert T. Bigelow of Skinwalker Ranch fame, and ah yes, this brings up again, the Aviary. So who know how the Raven died, and his identity? I have an unresolved question about that. Sunday morning before coffee! I love it!
@000 LOL very funny! Formerly the Gorman Ranch in UT, your map seems about right. Jacques Vallee among others, were retained by Bigelow Aerospace billionaire Robert Bigelow as part of the NIDS project to investigate the purported activity on this location. Falcon is an admitted liar. Raven reported to be dead. He is the mystery. The other stuff is uncertain future events. Thanks for the morning wake-up chat! :)
@cmeinel: Hey you're welcome! Thanks for sending back some stuff. I suppose the thing I'm most interested in is what you've been able to cobble together from collating reports from the various conditions. I know you've received info on two different prediction markets and I think you've received info on at least a couple of different Brier markets. I wonder... do you have any thoughts/hypotheses/conclusions(?) from the data?
Reaffirming my forecast.
The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
@redacted, wasn't it stated early on that Iranians were in Russia training on the upgraded command units and software? In contradiction to the statement that all of this series were obsolete and scrapped? In contradiction to trade show mixed messages saying Iranians were in process of picking makes and models? In contradiction of May 2015 orders from Putin to fill the order (do countries with dictators ignore supreme leader mandates?). Also with a multitude of positions regarding the lawsuit, factory orders and other paperwork. Meanwhile, Egypt, India and others were "placing orders" and various stock units were deployed to Syria, Russian Eastern Territory and Arctic during this question period. I believe, like the naval missiles to Syria, the downed missiles in Iran, the onboard S-400 batteries on ships in the Mediterranean and the submarine missile firings, these were primarily for Western consumption. All the talk of a bankrupt Russia cannot diminish the perceive panoply in multiple theaters, that if Western aggression begins anywhere, there are multiple responses in place to respond east coast, west coast, Alaska, Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Turkey, Caucuses, Levant that any reasonable military strategist would start running out of battle pieces to cover the map with adequate response. Borrowing an old American slogan/flag motto, Russia hung a huge "Don't Tread On Me!" banner for all the world to see. It hasn't hurt their arms sales business.
@ravel: Yes, you're right. Perhaps I was too myopic in selecting my discrepancy exemplar. We should have more questions focused on Russia. Does Janes track transaction volumes? I'm kind of counting on some big Russian arms sales to deliver the 4th quarter GDP surprise for the BRIC question. Maybe we could work backward from the financial transaction to the S-300 delivery date, eh?
@einsteinjs Thank you, I got your participant feedback report and converted it into pdf and odt formats and returned it to you along with my feedback and final leaderboard. It certainly is fascinating getting a look at season 4's many experimental groups. Anyone else want to trade?
@ravel, Russia won't go bankrupt as long as they can keep selling rocket engines to the United States Air Force.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/world/europe/pentagon-seeks-easing-of-ban-on-russian-rockets-for-us-space-missions.html
PS not to mention the Putin/Obama joint venture on the moon bases
@000, Lars, Moon Maid died in the explosion so I am too sad to continue that discussion. However before we discuss alt-news, perhaps we can entertain ideas as why or what agreements between Old Families, Bloodline and Magicians, White Hats, Dragons and P2 that allow P2 to fall, Iran a pass, and the re-emergence of Assyria. Ah, those are great themes for future incarnations of prediction games and markets, no?
If only we had invested in rocket engines: "The debate over the Russian engines has become entangled in an emerging rivalry among the companies vying for the lucrative business of space launches, amounting to $70 billion in contracts for military and intelligence missions alone between now and 2030, according to an estimate cited by the Government Accountability Office." as per your source, says that yes, that is a lot of money, and if the McCain party position wins, great news for Elon Musk and Robert T. Bigelow of Skinwalker Ranch fame, and ah yes, this brings up again, the Aviary. So who know how the Raven died, and his identity? I have an unresolved question about that. Sunday morning before coffee! I love it!
@ravel, hmmm, Skinwalker Ranch, mmm hmmmm. The secret lies in this journey: http://tinyurl.com/jqxe45y
Other secrets can be found here, in this text, including the disappearance in these parts of the mysterious Forecaster #16: http://tinyurl.com/hku7rs4
The raven seeks news of his cousin, the Falcon: https://youtu.be/phUxnXGhEiI
And that's all I've got, I need to go buy some pricey almond rolls from the local fancy cafe before I can continue.
@000 LOL very funny! Formerly the Gorman Ranch in UT, your map seems about right. Jacques Vallee among others, were retained by Bigelow Aerospace billionaire Robert Bigelow as part of the NIDS project to investigate the purported activity on this location. Falcon is an admitted liar. Raven reported to be dead. He is the mystery. The other stuff is uncertain future events. Thanks for the morning wake-up chat! :)
@ravel, no comment on the ranch at the other end of the drive?
Thats why I laughed ;) definitely skin walking going on there!
@cmeinel: Hey you're welcome! Thanks for sending back some stuff. I suppose the thing I'm most interested in is what you've been able to cobble together from collating reports from the various conditions. I know you've received info on two different prediction markets and I think you've received info on at least a couple of different Brier markets. I wonder... do you have any thoughts/hypotheses/conclusions(?) from the data?