Brexit → Trump → Le Pen
Not only did Brexit make Trump more likely - in the sense that it demonstrated the existence of a demographic favoring radical change from the status quo - but also Trump supporters were emboldened by Brexit. Farage helped Trump craft his message in the final weeks of the campaign. The same may be true for France - Trump and Brexit make Le Pen supporters believe they have a real chance and will motivate them to seize the opportunity. Hollande is deeply unpopular; the political cycle demands a stark change from him. Juppe and Sarkozy are now part of the established political class, and that may prove unpopular too.
Brexit → Trump → Le Pen
Not only did Brexit make Trump more likely - in the sense that it demonstrated the existence of a demographic favoring radical change from the status quo - but also Trump supporters were emboldened by Brexit. Farage helped Trump craft his message in the final weeks of the campaign. The same may be true for France - Trump and Brexit make Le Pen supporters believe they have a real chance and will motivate them to seize the opportunity. Hollande is deeply unpopular; the political cycle demands a stark change from him. Juppe and Sarkozy are now part of the established political class, and that may prove unpopular too.