Reaffirming my forecast.

The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.

Files
jeremylichtman
made a comment:

I wonder if GJP has a process in place for addressing mistaken closures?

Looks like I was right about maritime transport - makes sense to float equipment down-river to the Caspian, and then load it on barges and deliver directly to N. Iran. The other option would be a fleet of Antonovs, of course.

Files
Inactive-102
made a comment:

@GJDrew, @kmcochran, @WarrenHatch, cleanup on Aisle 7!

Files
dowser
made a comment:

Interesting juxtaposition between training and Kapustin Yar:

http://en.trend.az/world/other/2474158.html

Files
Clairvoyance
made a comment:

Another article citing the same TASS information. This article from Israel National News even mentions how Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai "claimed" the first delivery had already come in.

My opinion is that Mehdi is a liar and simply trying to save face. Mehdi promised delivery by "the end of the year" but the fact of the matter is the Iranian lawsuit against Russia is still active due to non-delivery.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/205488#.Vn3HsiFg

I wish I had emailed GJ back when we found out that the other superforcaster platform had closed the question. I was thinking about asking them to keep the question active until January 1st: so the resolution could be debated/sorted out later without voiding the question.

As it is now, if/when we get reports in Jan/Feb that the S-300 has been delivered and the Iranian lawsuit against Russia dropped, I don't see any other recourse but to void the question.

There is so much back and forth with this question, I think it's reasonable for all involved to admit that the delivery can't be credibly confirmed within the stated time frame.

Files
Inactive-102
made a comment:
Clairvoyance
made a comment:

@000 Well...It looks like the S-300 were actually delivered today. I'm glad the controversy with this question can finally come to a close.

Here's a photo of a S-300 missile being paraded to the citizens of Iran: just in time for Christmas

http://www.joeyskaggs.com/gallery/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/SkaggsSMT.SantaElves.Boris_.jpg
.

Files
Inactive-102
made a comment:

Alas, I call fake, for the simple reason that those ladies would be immediately arrested in Tehran for un-Islamic garb. Although their heads are properly covered, their hair is not secured. Apparently hair is an erotic signifier over there, so it has to be battened down to maintain the public order.

Files
Heffalump
made a comment:

You better apply some Antarctica to that burn!

Files
GeneH
made a comment:

This question is infinite.

NOW, they are scheduling delivery for February.

This from TASS--that dependable source this question seemed to rely upon to "close" prior.

http://tass.ru/en/defense/846876

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-reportedly-to-begin-delivery-of-s-300-to-iran-in-coming-weeks/

http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-s-300-missile-defense-systems-be-dispatched-iran-january-report-2239901

Files
Inactive-102
made a comment:

It's the gift that keeps on giving. At least this way, GJ will never run out of questions.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username