Reaffirming my forecast.

The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.

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Inactive-102
made a comment:

I don't know about folks who don't make any forecasts at all, I think they should be given some kind of hidden Peanut Gallery registration if they just want to watch.

Also I would time out anybody who registered and never forecast after a few weeks, because we don't have 14,000 active punters, we have about 70.

On the other hand that establishes that with 70 or fewer forecasters you can still build a well-functioning analyst team.

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Inactive-43
made a comment:

@Heffalump Early on I asked @GJDrew for permission to simply run nmap against the plethora of servers that contribute to the pages built on the fly that we see here, and he asked me to not do so. Perhaps he will read this thread and consider how many people have complained for so long about this particular, apparently SQL-based bug, that he would permit us to diagnose the problem for free.

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username-deleted 688
made a comment:

@000, you mean like Daniel Kahneman? https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/9964/scores
or user number 7, Katie Cochran? https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/7/scores
or dataguy42 Phillip Rescober at user number 6? https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/6/scores
or "an Industrial-Organizational Psychology researcher and with applied and practical experiences in continuous improvement in organizations" Abel Gallardo Olcay, "all the better to study your psyche, my dear" at user number 8, also no scores, predictions, upvotes: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/8/scores
or perhaps UofIballer Christopher Marshall, user number 9? https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/9/scores
The whole world is a lab rat maze and we are the runners. And if you quit, sit home and watch TV on the couch, they are peeping at you through that little light adjustment gauge thingee and monitoring your cable usage and your refrigerator tells them how many beers or sodas you drank, and your power meter tells them which room of the house you are in and your smoke detector sends radiation beams into your brain making you sad, so you hurry back to GJP Open to feel closely monitored, nurtured and able to fellowship and commiserate with the other jacked up, hacker scraper super dooper crackerjack rats. Yeah, maybe they have been put in time out, or maybe they just walk around with clipboard and measure your pulse rate when you found out you were Heffalump :)

@kahneman @kmcochran @dataguy42 @Abel @UofIballer

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jeremylichtman
made a comment:

@ravel The thing is, smart rats get to have all of the fun. Just act a little bit unpredictable, and cover your smirk with your hand, so they don't see it.

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inactive-60
made a comment:

@ravel: On one of the comments on here, you were asking about what a "super" looks/talks/speaks like. I thought you might find this post from Farnam Street useful: https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/12/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/

He distills the "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters." I think that this *kind of* gets to the question you were asking.

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redacted
made a comment:

@000: "with 70 or fewer forecasters you can still build a well-functioning analyst team." Well, now that that's sorted out, let's move on to POLICY formation, shall we?

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Inactive-43
made a comment:

@everyone in this thread, I haven't laughed so hard in a month of Tuesdays.

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username-deleted 688
made a comment:

Comment deleted on Dec 31, 2015 09:53PM UTC

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Khalid
made a comment:

@000, Hypermind has this rule that kicks out anyone who doesn't make a prediction for more than two weeks. I don't think they've actually implemented that yet, though. They also threaten to periodically drop the 15% worst performing participants!

Only 70 out of 14,000? That's worse than SciCast, where my guess was that less than 50 were really active, though nearly 11,000 are supposed to have signed up. Inkling's Public Market was better though. I think there were well over a thousand active out of 15,000 registered.

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Inactive-102
made a comment:

@cmeinel, regarding SciCast, it reminds me that GJP published their final picture which is also in their final report that you should, which, filtering 3 times, proves that forecasting is better than betting. However those three filters (training, teaming, tools) were not also consistently applied in the market condition. So the picture "proving" forecast better than market is not entirely well-founded based on not uniformly testing the same items in both formats. Nevertheless, I agree that forecast format has pragmatic benefits.

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