The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
I lost my heart and innocence in the fall of season 3 on the OPCW question ("How many of Assad's 23 chemical weapons sites will OPEC inspect prior to x date?"), that they closed early, after only 21 were inspected. Since then, judges have repeatedly proven to me their human fallibility, and, at times, suspected "political" influences ( evidence: the "little green men" in Ukraine).
The interaction, discussion & debate this year has been incredible, and so engaging that one of the new challenges for me is to balance the time I spend reading the posts of other forecasters with the time I devote to doing my own research.
I am so appreciative of the input of the forecasters in this string, and others, like Jean-Pierre; you've made this experience wonderful! I am looking forward to the new year and to more wisely selecting which questions I'll forecast on. I hope to be able to contribute more constructively by being more focused.
This thread ought to have reached the inboxes of Those Who Matter in GJI by now. Once in the GJP some team mates and I were discussing the project in the team forum or possibly in-team mail when Terry Murray joined in. They probably monitor the most commented threads.
SciCast was certainly more relaxed about its users. They would provide an "API key" to whoever asked for it and tolerated bots that would exploit every chance to make more points. The only time I remember that they drew a line was when some users apparently set up multiple accounts to manipulate the market. However, I still think they had very few active users compared to GJOpen - I was on it practically throughout the period it was functioning and I barely added 5% to my initial stake, yet I ranked between 30 and 50 on the leaderboard. There were about 20 "power users" who accumulated practically all the available earnings. In my case, with GJP training, I was concerned more with predicting correctly than maximizing earnings.
Following @000 I've signed up for an online Python course, I've completed several MOOCs over the last three years, but none on computing. Let's see how it goes.
@Khalid, that's great, now if I can just get a commission from the Coursera people. Note: Their participation rate (students who sign up and then follow through to completion on a course) is actually around 6%.[1][2] (We can't have a discussion here without some stats!)
Reaffirming my forecast.
The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
I love you, @ravel.
@000: I'll let you in on a little secret: @cmeinel doesn't scrape. She's too proud.
@ravel, I saw that dung beetle play in 1972 at the Ipswich High School. "My pile, my pile!" said the beetle.
Nor shall we bow, nor shall we scrape,
But go gently into the shadow of nightfall.
Alors, alors.
Quand meme.
Alors.
I *can* scrape. But I've done way too much of that, and I'm tired of it.
As we scrape on by
Little do we know
What the future portends.
What an interesting thread!
I lost my heart and innocence in the fall of season 3 on the OPCW question ("How many of Assad's 23 chemical weapons sites will OPEC inspect prior to x date?"), that they closed early, after only 21 were inspected. Since then, judges have repeatedly proven to me their human fallibility, and, at times, suspected "political" influences ( evidence: the "little green men" in Ukraine).
The interaction, discussion & debate this year has been incredible, and so engaging that one of the new challenges for me is to balance the time I spend reading the posts of other forecasters with the time I devote to doing my own research.
I am so appreciative of the input of the forecasters in this string, and others, like Jean-Pierre; you've made this experience wonderful! I am looking forward to the new year and to more wisely selecting which questions I'll forecast on. I hope to be able to contribute more constructively by being more focused.
This thread ought to have reached the inboxes of Those Who Matter in GJI by now. Once in the GJP some team mates and I were discussing the project in the team forum or possibly in-team mail when Terry Murray joined in. They probably monitor the most commented threads.
SciCast was certainly more relaxed about its users. They would provide an "API key" to whoever asked for it and tolerated bots that would exploit every chance to make more points. The only time I remember that they drew a line was when some users apparently set up multiple accounts to manipulate the market. However, I still think they had very few active users compared to GJOpen - I was on it practically throughout the period it was functioning and I barely added 5% to my initial stake, yet I ranked between 30 and 50 on the leaderboard. There were about 20 "power users" who accumulated practically all the available earnings. In my case, with GJP training, I was concerned more with predicting correctly than maximizing earnings.
Following @000 I've signed up for an online Python course, I've completed several MOOCs over the last three years, but none on computing. Let's see how it goes.
@Khalid, that's great, now if I can just get a commission from the Coursera people. Note: Their participation rate (students who sign up and then follow through to completion on a course) is actually around 6%.[1][2] (We can't have a discussion here without some stats!)
Those Who Matter: @GJDrew, @WarrenHatch, @kmcochran, @ben, @Reynard, @Littlefinger, @kahneman: Look at us, look at us! Take a picture!!
[1] http://www.katyjordan.com/MOOCproject.html
[2] http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/dcs/people/research/csrmaj/daniel_onah_edulearn14.pdf
It looks like I up voted @anneinak. Oh well, I was going to, anyway. STOP PICKING THE UKRAINE WOUNDS!
@000 Bae will love those pieces for the PhD thesis, so thanks!