Will Moody's downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?

Started Jan 05, 2016 06:08PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2016 09:00PM UTC

In mid-December, President Zuma's dramatic finance minister swap and Moody's change to the country's credit outlook raised questions about the future of the South African economy, currently rated by Moody's as Baa2 (Moody's, Financial Times, Reuters). For more information on Moody's Global Long Term Rating Scale see page 5 of Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions. Recommended Questions Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016? How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 394
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 801
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00308
2.
-0.00308
3.
-0.00308
4.
-0.00308
5.
-0.00308

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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