Good Judgment® Open | Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

Started Feb 02, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2016 09:00PM UTC

Challenges

The Economist's World in 2016 Early Warning Project 2016 GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)

Tags

Security and Conflict Non-US Politics

In late September 2015, the Colombian government and FARC publicly pledged to conclude a peace deal within six months (The Economist, BBC). Recommended Question Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016? Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

Forecast
Activity

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Yes		0%
No		100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	543
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts	1582
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.

-0.25

2.

-0.25

3.

-0.232

4.

-0.229

5.

-0.216

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time