How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections?

Started Feb 02, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Resolution: This question was closed on answer option a) "At least 2/3" with an end date of 18 September 2016. United Russia won 343 of the 450 seats in the Duma, giving them a super majority with roughly 76% of the seats (Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS Russian News Agency). Elections for the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's national legislature, are currently scheduled for 18 September 2016 (Bloomberg, RT). This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the FAQ. Clarification issued 5 July 2016: Question will be resolved based on Russia's official count of the seats held by United Russia after the elections. That count shows United Russia having 238 seats in the current Duma (Duma.gov.ru, Russia Votes, Reuters). Recommended Questions How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017? Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than half 0%
At least two-thirds of all seats 20%
At least one-half but less than two-thirds 80%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 241
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1092
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.516
2.
-0.508
3.
-0.496
4.
-0.491
5.
-0.47

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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