When will Ted Cruz drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?

Started Mar 18, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 04, 2016 01:00AM UTC

The New York primary is scheduled for 19 April, the Nebraska primary is scheduled for 10 May, the California primary is scheduled for 7 June, and the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin in 18 July. For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: Candidates, How the Presidential Primary Works, Schedule. This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the FAQ. Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July? (Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before the New York primary 0%
After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary 0%
After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary 0%
After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins 1%
Not before the Republican National Convention 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 701
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1503
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.248
2.
-1.207
3.
-1.202
4.
-1.171
5.
-1.153

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username