Before 1 July 2017, will Russia allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?

Started Oct 04, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

In 2011, Russia began allowing Turkish citizens to enter its territory without visas for a period of up to 30 days (TASS Russian News Agency). Russia suspended that arrangement in November 2015 after Turkish forces downed a Russian military jet (Washington Post, Business Insider). In August 2016, Russian president Vladimir Putin and President Erdogan moved toward rapprochement and committed to working toward a full restoration of economic and trade ties (NY Times, Washington Post). Shortly afterwards, Russia lifted the restrictions on charter flights to Turkey (Global Times). Recommended Questions Before 2018, will there be a new president of Zimbabwe? Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017? Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?
There is no evidence that the Russian government has implemented any changes to the restrictions which were in place at time of question launch. The question has been closed as "b) no" with an end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 06/23/17 03:27pm
GJ has been looking into whether the 31 May announcement about Russia expanding the categories of citizens allowed to travel to Russia visa-free should resolve the question (Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia). This announcement indicates the policy change will go into force the day of its official publication in the gazette. We have seen no evidence that the policy change has gone into effect, so the question remains open at this time. If evidence of implementation emerges, the question will be closed retroactively to the date of implementation.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 334
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1520
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.107764
2.
-0.103414
3.
-0.102848
4.
-0.100489
5.
-0.097559

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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