Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles?

Started Jan 06, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
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Amazon completed its first drone delivery in the U.K., the debut of its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) shipping service (The Guardian). U.S. commercial drone rules were finalized at the end of August 2016 (FAA). Among other things, they require operators to maintain visual line of site with the drones (FAA, Fortune). Since passing the regulation, U.S. regulators have been granting waivers for companies to test drone delivery (FAA). 7-Eleven, which became the first major company to use drones for deliveries in the U.S.,did so without a waiver because its drone operators maintained line of site for short range delivery (CNBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration did not grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 414
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1434
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.798
2.
-0.796
3.
-0.793
4.
-0.791
5.
-0.786

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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