Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus?

Started Sep 21, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 02, 2016 03:00AM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 30.00%
No 70.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 994
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 3026
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.065638
2.
-0.064168
3.
-0.063567
4.
-0.063567
5.
-0.063472

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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