The Economist asks

Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases?

Started Jan 24, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC
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Congress passed the 21st Century Cures Act in December 2016, meant to accelerate the discovery, development, and delivery of new cures (US Congress). Spark Therapeutics could become the first company to receive FDA approval to sell a gene-therapy treatment in the U.S. (The Economist, Technology Review, FDA Cellular Gene Therapy Products, Nature Journal, FDA Development Approval Process). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
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Although the FDA approved the sale of a new gene therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, they did not approve the sale of any gene therapy for inherited diseases. This question closed "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 495
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1052
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042
2.
-0.041
3.
-0.041
4.
-0.04

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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