Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?

Started Mar 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

This question refers to the following CEOs and government leaders: Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister), Dmitry Kozak (Deputy Prime Minister), Sergey Shoygu (Defense Minister), Alexander Bastrykin (Investigative Committee leader), Nikolai Patrushev (Head, Security Council of Russia), Igor Sechin (Rosneft CEO), and Alexey Miller (Gazprom CEO). In the event that one of the listed officials moves to a different top position as a cabinet member (The Russian Government) or CEO of Rosneft, Gazprom, SberBank, or VTB, it will not count toward the total. Since mid-2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed from prominent positions four close allies: Sergei Ivanov, Andrei Belyaninov, Viktor Ivanov, and Vladimir Yakunin (NY Times, NY Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as “0 to 1” with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 to 1 95%
2 to 3 5%
4 to 5 0%
6 to 7 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 692
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.4
3.
-0.399
4.
-0.388
5.
-0.384

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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