How many NATO members will spend 2% or more of their GDP on defense in 2018?

Started Mar 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 10, 2018 05:00PM UTC

Outcome will be determined by the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2018 (NATO). Estimates for 2018 will count. According to the July 2016 report (Table 3 NATO), which included an estimate for 2016 spending, five countries spent 2% or more of their GDP on defense. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "5" with an end date of 10 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 0%
5 12%
6 to 8, inclusive 86%
More than 8 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 395
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1190
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.347
2.
-0.342
3.
-0.339
4.
-0.331
5.
-0.326

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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