The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

What will be the official U.S. civilian unemployment rate for the month of July 2017?

Started Apr 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) reported for the month of July 2017, published by the Department of Labor on 4 August 2017 (Bureau of Labor Statistics). For more information on U3, see: Investopedia. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
US Civilian Unemployment rate was 4.3% for July 2017. (Bureau of Labor Statistics). This question was closed as "b) Between 4.0 and 4.5%, inclusive." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4.0% 0%
Between 4.0 and 4.5%, inclusive 96%
More than 4.5% but less than 5.0% 4%
5.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 230
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 725
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.257
2.
-0.239
4.
-0.23
5.
-0.21

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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