Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?
Started
Apr 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
North Korea's missile program is a cause of concern for mutiple actors in the region and beyond, particularly regarding the development of ICBM capabilities (38 North, BBC, WSJ, Popular Science, CNN, 38 North, NY Times).
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On July 4th 2017, NK launched an ICBM (The Korea Herald, U.S. Department of State, Stratfor). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of July 4th 2017 See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
On July 4th 2017, NK launched an ICBM (The Korea Herald, U.S. Department of State, Stratfor). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of July 4th 2017 See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20.00% | |
| No | 80.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 224 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 735 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
