Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019?

Started Apr 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

There are concerns about a pandemic caused by the spread of avian flu (NY Times). Both the CDC (CDC, CDC) and the WHO (WHO) actively monitor influenza viruses and manage pandemic declaration. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 489
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1418
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.01418
2.
-0.014139
3.
-0.014118
4.
-0.014118
5.
-0.014102

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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