Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?

Started May 09, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 13, 2018 05:00PM UTC

A non-mandatory embargo will not count. With warnings of ethnic cleansing and war-induced famine, the US and others have been pushing for an arms embargo (ECR, Aljazeera, NY Times). Examples of mandatory arms embargoes imposed by the UNSC include the Central African Republic in 2013 (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)), Yemen in 2015 (SIPRI), and Libya in 2011 (SIPRI). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The UN imposed an arms embargo on South Sudan. This question closed as "yes" with an end date of 13 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10.00%
No 90.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 673
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.324
3.
-1.315
4.
-1.313

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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