The Economist and HFC ask

What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?

Started Jun 06, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 24, 2017 05:00PM UTC

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won no seats in the Bundestag in 2013 (Spiegel, BBC). Popularity may be rising (Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Telegraph). Germany is scheduled to hold federal elections in 2017 (Deutsche Welle). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The Alternative for Germany party won 12.6% of the vote. This question closed as “c) More than 10% but less than 15%” with an end date of 24 September 2017 (NY Times, BBC). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5% 0%
Between 5% and 10%, inclusive 12%
More than 10% but less than 15% 88%
15% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 238
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 949
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.442
2.
-0.376
3.
-0.337
4.
-0.336
5.
-0.335

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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