The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

Before 1 January 2018, will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P cut the State of Illinois’ credit rating to junk status?

Started Jul 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

The question will close yes if Moody’s cuts its credit rating to Ba1, Fitch cuts its rating to BB+, or S&P cuts its rating to BB+ on any Illinois state general obligation bonds. Despite passing a budget, the state of Illinois remains at risk of having its credit downgraded to junk status (Market Watch, Chicago Tribune). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Fitch, Moody's, or S&P did not cut the State of Illinois credit rating to junk status. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8.00%
No 92.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 363
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 688
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.054
3.
-0.052
4.
-0.05

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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