Before 31 December 2017, will President Trump sign legislation removing the ACA's individual mandate to purchase health insurance?

Started Jul 14, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 22, 2017 06:00PM UTC

The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. In May 2017, the House passed a bill to “repeal and replace” the ACA with a provision that would end the individual mandate. The issue has moved to the Senate (Fox News, Vox). The passage of legislation which limits enforcement (e.g by removing the penalty or prohibiting the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate) would resolve the question as "yes" (Cornell Law). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 22 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 27.50%
No 72.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 407
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1138
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.642
2.
-1.632
3.
-1.619
4.
-1.515
5.
-1.425

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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