The Mack Institute asks
What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?
Started
Jul 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 06:00PM UTC
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This question will be resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2017, which will replicate an approach published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study. In 2016, using a similar method, the Mack Institute found that the average price had declined to $282 per kWh (Mack Institute). Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Bloomberg, The Guardian).
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Mack notes that they did not find any acceleration in the cost trend as many pundits have argued, but that GJO forecasters had it spot on! The Mack Institute has completed the new analysis for the 2017 battery costs. Based on the latest data, they found the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh. The cost reduction trended at the same rate as last year with a 16% reduction in annual cost (The Mack Institute). This question closed as "More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Mack notes that they did not find any acceleration in the cost trend as many pundits have argued, but that GJO forecasters had it spot on! The Mack Institute has completed the new analysis for the 2017 battery costs. Based on the latest data, they found the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh. The cost reduction trended at the same rate as last year with a 16% reduction in annual cost (The Mack Institute). This question closed as "More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than $215 kWh | 3% | |
Between $215 and $230 per kWh, inclusive | 34% | |
More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh | 49% | |
$245 per kWh or more | 14% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 178 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 404 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |