The Mack Institute asks

Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will any major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles?

Started Jul 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 20, 2018 04:00AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" are any of the car brands or whole car companies identified in this infographic. Volvo recently announced that starting in 2019 all new models it produces will be electric or hybrid (Volvo, Forbes). Announcements that only apply to a certain market segment or geographic location will not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.

Question clarification
Issued on 12/27/17 03:31pm
The more info section incorrectly implies Volvo announced it would only sell electric and hybrid vehicles after 2019. The following correction to the original 'more information' section has been made: Volvo recently announced that starting in 2019 all new models it produces will be electric or hybrid (Volvo, Forbes). Please note that this change does not affect the forecasting question, which is still about whether a major automaker announces a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles.
Resolution Notes

This question closed as "no" with an end date of 20 July 2018.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/porsche-ceo-only-electric-vehicles-2030/

https://qz.com/1329712/why-the-world-is-so-excited-about-electric-cars-in-charts/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.00%
No 97.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 593
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1243
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.54
4.
-0.537
5.
-0.537

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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