Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?

Started Aug 09, 2017 04:45PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Challenges

The question will resolve as "yes" if the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset records any event with a start date (Start Month, Start Day, Start Year) between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is: ISR (Israel), and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, typically in mid-September via the .zip file which begins with January 2016.
The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Dataset did not record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017. This questions closed as "b) No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 197
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 324
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
2.
-0.006
3.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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