Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017?

Started Aug 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2017 07:59AM UTC

The Virginia gubernatorial race will take place on 7 November 2017. The campaign has drawn national attention and money, with both Democrats and Republicans viewing the contest as a referendum on President Trump (The Washington Post, The Washington Post, The Hill). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Ralph Northam (Democrat) won Virgina's gubernatorial race by a margin greater than 5% (Real Clear Politics). This question closed as "a) Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%," with an end date of 8 November 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5% 18%
Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less 58%
Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less 24%
Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin greater than 5% 0%
None of the above 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 299
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 658
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.315
3.
-0.265
4.
-0.258
5.
-0.256

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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