Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?

Started Oct 19, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2015 11:00PM UTC

US coalition partners in Syria include Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Jordan. A no-fly zone has been discussed as a potential way to protect civilians and humanitarian workers in Syria, but Russia's air campaign makes execution more difficult and more dangerous (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-02/putin-has-his-own-no-fly-zone-in-syria , http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cee6fcba-69bf-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-un-assembly-hollande-syria-idUSKCN0RS2D920150928 , http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/27/former-british-general-calls-for-no-fly-zone-over-north-west-syria , http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/02/in-break-with-white-house-clinton-advocates-syria-no-fly-zone/ ).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1119
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1764
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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