HFC asks

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Tunisia between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017?

Started Oct 11, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Violence against civilians, or Remote violence; and 'FATALITIES' is greater than or equal to 1. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released. If a qualifying event is recorded, the question will be closed retroactively with the date of the first event as the end date of the question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

https://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 134
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014
2.
-0.013
3.
-0.013
4.
-0.013
5.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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