HFC asks

Before 27 December 2017, will Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania accuse Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission?

Started Oct 11, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 27, 2017 06:00PM UTC

If the relevant governments are overthrown during an invasion, an announcement by a third party government accusing Russia of invasion will count. Examples of past accusations of Russian military intervention include Georgia's claim that Russia invaded its territory in August of 2008 (Belfast Telegraph), Ukraine's claim the Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014 (Sputnik News), Ukraine's condemnation of illegal Russian fighters in Eastern Ukraine in June 2014 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine), and Ukraine's statement in August 2014 that Russia military forces had crossed the border and were actively engaged in fighting (The Guardian). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania have not accused Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 27 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 582
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000219
2.
-0.000219
3.
-0.000219
4.
-0.000219
5.
-0.000219

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username