Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?

Started Oct 17, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 27, 2017 07:59AM UTC

Honduras has presidential elections scheduled for 26 November 2017 (The Star, The Economist). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
With nearly 43% of the popular vote, Juan Hernandez has been declared the winner in Honduras' presidential election (TSE Honduras, NPR). This question closed as "Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, with more than 45% of the popular vote 46%
Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive 51%
Yes, with more than 27% but less than 38% of the vote 3%
Yes, with 27% or less of the popular vote 0%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.422
3.
-0.403
4.
-0.398
5.
-0.379

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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