Before 1 July 2018, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of 'bump stocks'?

Started Oct 20, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas on 1 October, the role played by so-called 'bump stocks', an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles, has been in focus. Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (CNN, CNN), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them by regulation under existing law. Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
There was no legislation passed in the House or Senate concerning bump stocks. This question closed as "No" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 556
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1444
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022
2.
-0.022
3.
-0.022
4.
-0.017
5.
-0.017

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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