The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 July 2018, will Tesla announce that it will build a factory to manufacture electric vehicles in China?

Started Oct 20, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

In its quest for global growth, Tesla is looking to expand its manufacturing capacity. There is speculation that it might build a new factory in China, but China's requirements for foreign automakers partnering with Chinese companies may prove an obstacle (Bloomberg, Electrek). An announcement by Tesla regarding a factory that only manufactures component parts of an electric vehicle will not count (e.g. Electrek). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, manufacturing without a Chinese partner 3%
Yes, manufacturing with a Chinese partner 5%
No 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 520
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 947
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.535
2.
-0.533
3.
-0.529
4.
-0.524
5.
-0.495

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username