HFC asks

Between 25 October and 31 December 2017, will North Korea launch an SLBM?

Started Oct 25, 2017 05:15PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 04:59AM UTC

North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program is continuing to advance (Reuters, The Telegraph, The Diplomat). The launch must be conducted from a submarine. Barge tests and land based tests of SLBMs won't count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
North Korea did not launch an SLBM between 25 October and 31 December 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 377
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 753
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009
2.
-0.008
3.
-0.008
4.
-0.008
5.
-0.008

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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