The Economist asks
Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?
Started
Oct 24, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed May 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
In recent months, North Korea has increased the pace of its ballistic missile testing program. In response, many of its neighbors have invested in ballistic missile defense (New York Times, USNI, SCMP, The Diplomat).
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This question closed as "no" with and end date of 1 May 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "no" with and end date of 1 May 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, and the North Korean missile flight path will be interrupted | 1% | |
Yes, but the North Korean missile flight path will NOT be interrupted | 0% | |
No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 1121 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1931 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |