The Economist asks

Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?

Started Oct 24, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

In recent months, North Korea has increased the pace of its ballistic missile testing program. In response, many of its neighbors have invested in ballistic missile defense (New York Times, USNI, SCMP, The Diplomat). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with and end date of 1 May 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the North Korean missile flight path will be interrupted 1%
Yes, but the North Korean missile flight path will NOT be interrupted 0%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1931
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.023
2.
-0.023
3.
-0.023
4.
-0.023
5.
-0.023

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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