As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?

Started Nov 07, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 28, 2017 06:00PM UTC

The WHO has reported that a cholera outbreak in Yemen has surged since the end of April (Reuters, Financial Times, CNN, The Guardian). Outcome will be determined by data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), which provides a cumulative count of Yemen's cholera deaths since 27 April 2017, using WHO data. The relevant data can be found by downloading the "Yemen Cholera Outbreak Epidemiology Data," looking at the most recent entry in the "Deaths" column of the "Data_Country_Level" tab. If HDX stops tracking cholera cases in Yemen, the question will resolve based on the final available HDX numbers. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
As of 28 December 2017, the most recent Humanitarian Data Exchange record for cholera deaths in Yemen reflected 2,219 deaths. This question closed as "less than 2,300" with and end date of 29 December. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2,300 95%
Between 2,300 and 2,500, inclusive 5%
More than 2,500 but less than 3,000 0%
3,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 71
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 192
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.139
2.
-0.137
3.
-0.13
4.
-0.127
5.
-0.12

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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