HFC asks

Which parties, from among the Green Party, the FDP, and the Left, will be part of Germany's next governing coalition?

Started Nov 08, 2017 05:30PM UTC
Closed Mar 14, 2018 05:00PM UTC

Recent elections in Germany have changed the make-up of the Bundestag (CNN) and Angela Merkel's CDU party is searching for new partners to form a governing coalition (Washington Post, Reuters, Reuters). If no governing coalition is formed and a new election is held, the question will close as "None of the above." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
2 February 2018: The HFC Challenge concluded, however GJ wants to honor the hard work and research forecasters completed during the question's initial duration, so we are reopening this IFP for forecasting. It will remain open until the next governing coalition of Germany is determined or a new election is called, whichever comes first. Any outcome not encompassed in the party combination options provided will resolve as "none of the above."
This question closed as "e) none of the above" with an end date of 14 March 2018 (Deutsche Welle). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Left Party and the Green Party, but not the FDP 0%
The Left Party and the FDP, but not the Green Party 0%
The Green Party and the FDP, but not the Left Party 0%
The Left Party, the Green Party, and the FDP 0%
None of the above 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 275
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 705
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118
2.
-0.106
3.
-0.092
4.
-0.053
5.
-0.052

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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