When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality?
Started
Nov 14, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Civilian fatalities will count. Tensions between North Korea and its adversaries have heightened security risks in East Asia (The Washington Post, Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph, The Guardian). North Korea and South Korea have a history of confrontation (The Guardian).
This question closed as "Not before 1 October" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "Not before 1 October" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 January 2018 | 0% | |
| Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive | 0% | |
| Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive | 0% | |
| Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive | 0% | |
| Not before 1 October 2018 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 607 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1543 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
