The Economist asks
How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?
Started
Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 04, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 04, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
Italy is legally required to hold a general election in 2018. The populist Five Star Movement finished third in the 2013 general election and has seen strong support in recent polling (Reuters, CNBC, Quarts, Stratfor). The Five Star Movement has so far refused alliances with other parties, but the new electoral law incentivizes broad pre-election coalitions (Politico).
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This question closed as "d) Between 201 and 340, inclusive" with an end date of 4 March 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "d) Between 201 and 340, inclusive" with an end date of 4 March 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 50 | 0% | |
Between 50 and 87, inclusive | 6% | |
Between 88 and 200, inclusive | 82% | |
Between 201 and 340, inclusive | 12% | |
More than 340 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 368 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 652 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |