The Economist asks

How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?

Started Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 04, 2018 06:00PM UTC

Italy is legally required to hold a general election in 2018. The populist Five Star Movement finished third in the 2013 general election and has seen strong support in recent polling (Reuters, CNBC, Quarts, Stratfor). The Five Star Movement has so far refused alliances with other parties, but the new electoral law incentivizes broad pre-election coalitions (Politico). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "d) Between 201 and 340, inclusive" with an end date of 4 March 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 50 0%
Between 50 and 87, inclusive 6%
Between 88 and 200, inclusive 82%
Between 201 and 340, inclusive 12%
More than 340 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 368
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 652
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.415
2.
-0.344
3.
-0.314
4.
-0.311
5.
-0.273

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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