Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?

Started Sep 01, 2015 04:37PM UTC
Closed Jan 16, 2016 08:00PM UTC

For details of the case involving Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post correspondent being held in Iran, see: www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/world/middleeast/irans-trial-of-jason-rezaian-illustrates-perils-faced-by-reporters.html www.cbsnews.com/news/lawyer-jason-rezaian-iran-free-washington-post-reporter-iran-nuclear-deal/ www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/lawyer-urges-iran-prison-release-for-post-journalist-in-wake-of-nuclear-deal/2015/07/28/15273ede-350d-11e5-8e66-07b4603ec92a_story.html
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 65.00%
No 35.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 423
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 1283
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.317
2.
-0.281
3.
-0.281
4.
-0.281
5.
-0.277

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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