The Economist asks

Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?

Started Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Prime Minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she navigates Brexit (Bloomberg, Evening Standard). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, someone from the Conservative Party 1%
Yes, someone from the Labour Party 0%
Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties 0%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 947
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1815
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.17
2.
-0.168
3.
-0.168
4.
-0.164
5.
-0.164

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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