The Economist asks

Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?

Started Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Revisions to the "outlook" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote, and Moody's did the same in September 2017. While S&P recently reaffirmed its AA rating, it cautioned that the risk of a disorderly Brexit may lead to a further downgrade (Reuters, Financial Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no adjustment" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Up 0%
Down 11%
No Adjustment 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 615
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.436
2.
-0.419
3.
-0.417
4.
-0.417
5.
-0.415

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username