When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?
Started
Nov 03, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2015 02:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 21, 2015 02:00PM UTC
Examples of previous launches include the October 2015 and February 2014 missile tests ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-iran-missiles-usa-idUSKCN0SA20Z20151016 , http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/10/iran-missile-test_n_4762251.html ). For more information on ballistic missiles see https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles. UN Security Council Resolution 1929 bans Iran from testing ballistic missiles and will be lifted once the nuclear deal has been implemented (http://www.cfr.org/iran/un-security-council-resolution-1929-iran/p22433 ).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 March 2016 | 6% | |
| Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive | 8% | |
| Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive | 11% | |
| Not before 1 July 2016 | 75% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 197 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 412 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
