HFC asks

Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2017 04:59AM UTC

Examples of civilian sea vessels include, but are not limited to, cruise liners, fishing boats, and merchant ships (e.g., oil tankers). Recent studies indicate that civilian vessels are increasingly vulnerable to attacks by non-state actors (Maritime Executive, Marine Insight,BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
There was not an attack between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which resulted in at least three fatalities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 171
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username