HFC asks
Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities?
Started
Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2017 04:59AM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2017 04:59AM UTC
Challenges
Examples of civilian sea vessels include, but are not limited to, cruise liners, fishing boats, and merchant ships (e.g., oil tankers). Recent studies indicate that civilian vessels are increasingly vulnerable to attacks by non-state actors (Maritime Executive, Marine Insight,BBC).
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There was not an attack between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which resulted in at least three fatalities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
There was not an attack between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017 by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which resulted in at least three fatalities. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 5.00% | |
No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 87 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 171 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |