Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?

Started Nov 17, 2015 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 20, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85.00%
No 15.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 831
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2219
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.855
2.
-0.84
3.
-0.811
4.
-0.795
5.
-0.795

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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