Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019?

Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has been using People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some have been posing as fishermen (South China Morning Post, Reuters, The Guardian, Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Diplomat). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a US-China confrontation during the timeframe of the question. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 01/31/18 05:26pm
A lethal confrontation between China and Taiwan that meets the requirements of this question will count towards a "yes" resolution.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10.00%
No 90.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 3430
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 4881
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.041571
2.
-0.041571
3.
-0.04148
4.
-0.04148
5.
-0.04148

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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