The Economist asks
Will Alexei Navalny be imprisoned or placed under house arrest between 10 January 2018 and 8 April 2018?
Started
Jan 10, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 06, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed Apr 06, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Navalny has been incarcerated many times for reasons ranging from unauthorized protests to embezzlement (Deutsche Welle, Bloomberg). Although the Central Election Committee of the Russian Federation has barred him from running in the upcoming presidential elections, Navalny has continued to express his political aspirations (The Economist, The Economist).
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Alexei Navalny was not imprisoned or placed under house arrest. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 9 April 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Alexei Navalny was not imprisoned or placed under house arrest. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 9 April 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Question clarification
Issued on 02/12/18 02:17pm
12 February 2018: Detainment, in the absence of a judicial hearing or arraignment, will not be sufficient to close the question.
12 February 2018: Detainment, in the absence of a judicial hearing or arraignment, will not be sufficient to close the question.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10.00% | |
| No | 90.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 420 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1091 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
