Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?

Started Nov 24, 2015 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 19, 2016 10:00PM UTC

Christine Lagarde's first term as managing director of the IMF will end in July of 2016 (The World in 2016). She has indicated that she is willing to serve another term as IMF managing director, but there have been indications that the next leader may be a non-European (Reuters, Financial Times). Recommended Questions Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership? Who will be the next mayor of London? When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Someone else from Europe 0%
Christine Lagarde will serve a second term 99%
Someone from outside Europe 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 528
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1321
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.087
2.
-0.087
3.
-0.086
5.
-0.085

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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