The Monkey Cage asks
Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?
Started
Jan 24, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 28, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed Aug 28, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (NY Times, Reuters, The Washington Post). The primary election is scheduled to take place on 28 August 2018 (Arizona Secretary of State).
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This question closed as "no" with an end date of 28 August 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 28 August 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 5.00% | |
No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 384 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 893 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |