The Monkey Cage asks

Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?

Started Jan 24, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 28, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (NY Times, Reuters, The Washington Post). The primary election is scheduled to take place on 28 August 2018 (Arizona Secretary of State). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 28 August 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 384
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 893
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046
2.
-0.046
3.
-0.046
4.
-0.046
5.
-0.046

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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