Which film will win the 2018 Academy Award® for Best Picture?

Started Jan 31, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 05, 2018 04:30AM UTC

The Academy Awards® take place on March 4th (The Oscars). To enable night of forecasting, this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The Shape of Water won the 2018 Academy Award for Best Picture. (The Washington Post) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Call Me by Your Name 0%
Darkest Hour 0%
Dunkirk 0%
Get Out 2%
Lady Bird 1%
Phantom Thread 0%
The Post 0%
The Shape of Water 57%
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 390
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.718306
2.
-0.708271
3.
-0.700019
4.
-0.638306
5.
-0.592626

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username